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September 23rd non-ferrous metal early bus

2022-09-23

From January to July 2022, the global primary aluminum market will be in short supply of 916,000 tons, and in 2021, there will be a supply shortage of 1.558 million tons. In the first seven months of this year, global primary aluminum demand was 40.192 million tons, down 215,000 tons from the same period last year. Global primary aluminium production fell by 0.7% during the period. At the end of July, total reportable stocks were 737,000 tonnes below December 2021 levels.

From January to July 2022, the global primary aluminum market will be in short supply of 916,000 tons, and in 2021, there will be a supply shortage of 1.558 million tons. In the first seven months of this year, global primary aluminum demand was 40.192 million tons, down 215,000 tons from the same period last year. Global primary aluminium production fell by 0.7% during the period. At the end of July, total reportable stocks were 737,000 tonnes below December 2021 levels.

On September 22, SMM counted 666,000 tons of aluminium profile manufacturers in china social inventory, a decrease of 9,000 tons from last Thursday, a decrease of 19,000 tons from Monday, a decrease of 122,000 tons from the same period last year, and a monthly decrease from the end of August. A decrease of 11,000 tons. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots began to decline. This Thursday, the inventory of aluminum ingots fell to 666,000 tons, which was a historically low level compared with the same period in history.

Goldman Sachs expects the global aluminum market supply shortage to shrink this year and next. According to the report, aluminum prices are expected to be $2,100/2,450/2,750 per tonne in 3/6/12 months. The report also said that the average price of aluminum is expected to be $2,686 per ton this year, compared with its previous forecast of $2,916 per ton; the average price of aluminum in 2023 is expected to be $2,563 per ton, compared with the previous forecast of $3,425 per ton. The report said that the global aluminum market supply shortage is expected to be 629,000 tons this year, while its forecast for this year's aluminum market supply shortage at the beginning of this year was 1.8 million tons. The report predicts that there will be a supply and demand gap of 241,000 tons in the global aluminum market next year, while the previous supply gap is estimated at 1.4 million tons.


According to the release of customs data, China's export volume of aluminum profiles in August 2022 was 81,800 tons, a decrease of 11,500 tons or 12.4% from July, and a decrease of 3.42% year-on-year. The export volume of aluminum wheels was 74,700 tons, down 7% month-on-month and 9% year-on-year. The export volume of aluminum foil was 128,500 tons, down 10% month-on-month and up 11% year-on-year. From January to August, the total export volume was 1.0164 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 15.67%.

On September 22, aluminum inventories on the London Metal Exchange decreased by 1,675 tons, copper inventories increased by 4,775 tons, nickel inventories decreased by 186 tons, lead inventories decreased by 400 tons, tin inventories increased by 80 tons, and zinc inventories decreased by 3,650 tons (zinc inventories fell to 2020). lowest since February)

According to the compilation of World Aluminum Network, after deciding to withdraw from the Russian market in March 2022, Ball announced on the 21st of this month that it had completed the sale of its beverage packaging business in Russia for $530 million to the Arnest Group. At present, Arnest Group has acquired all of Ball's business in Russia. Original link: Russian company Arnest acquires Ball’s business in Russia

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points as expected by consensus, setting off the climax of the global "super central bank week" amid persistently high inflation pressures. Next, many central banks around the world will make interest rate decisions on Thursday, which will also become the focus of market attention. While higher interest rates could dampen economic growth or even trigger a recession, high inflation remains the top concern for most central banks for now. Riksbank raised interest rates by 100 basis points more than expected on Tuesday in the face of a 30-year high inflation rate in August. On "Super Thursday", the interest rate hike by the Bank of England and how the Bank of Japan responds to the declining yen exchange rate will become the focus of the market.

On September 22, the Ministry of Commerce held a regular press conference. Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Shu Jueting said that the proportion of zero-tariff trade in goods will be further increased, market access for trade in services and investment will be relaxed, and market access on new rules such as digital economy and environmental protection will be actively participated in, so as to promote the construction of a new system of a higher-level open economy. .

Under the overseas tightening policy, the RMB has been under pressure from overseas currencies for a long time. As it broke 7 for the first time in two years, the performance of the RMB exchange rate has been a hot topic in the market. In this regard, Zhu Chaoping, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management, believes that on the one hand, the interest rate difference between the US dollar and the RMB makes the return of overseas funds inevitable, which puts the RMB against the US dollar for a long time. On the other hand, the RMB against a basket of major currency indices remains relatively stable , reflecting that China's economic fundamentals are relatively stable. In the future, it is believed that with the recovery of the economy, funds are expected to return, which is conducive to supporting the RMB exchange rate.

[US stocks closed] The Dow fell 107.10 points, or 0.35%, to 30076.68 points; the S&P 500 fell 31.94 points, or 0.84%, to 3757.99 points; the Nasdaq fell 153.39 points, or 1.37%, to 11066.81 points.

LME electronic disk aluminum 2223 rose 20; copper 7684 rose 25; zinc 3117 rose 18; lead 1853 fell 0.5; nickel 24365 fell 635; aluminum inventory 340,000 tons; exchange rate 6.9798

LME now aluminum 2213 up 36; copper 7739 down 10; zinc 3122 up 10; lead 1837 up 17; nickel 24482 down 400

On September 22, Shanghai Futures 2210 contract aluminum closed at 18755 and rose 145; copper closed at 62530 and rose 140; zinc closed at 24880 and rose 200


 
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